KFGO Blog

Hoeven: Will he or won’t he?  The media speculates but how about some analysis.

With the 2008 election safely in the rear-view mirror, the only two remaining print reporters actually reporting on ND politics, Dale Wetzel (Associated Press) and Brian Duggan (Bismarck Tribune), last week published competing stories about whether Gov. John Hoeven will challenge U.S. Sen. Byron Dorgan in November 2010. Although not direct quotes, the articles can be summarized as: “Hoeven not yet decided,” “Republicans want Hoeven to run,” “Dorgan and Hoeven: both popular with North Dakota voters,” and “Race could be expensive!” No news there.

Is Hoeven going to run?  No one knows today, not even John Hoeven (provided he is telling the truth that a decision has not been made). While politics does involve the intangibles of ego and ambition, a political decision like the one Hoeven faces is based mainly on hardball reality. And the three most significant realities are money, message, and timing…in that order. My speculation is that these are the questions John Hoeven is analyzing.

Money: Can John Hoeven raise the money? 

Fair speculation is that the total cost of a Dorgan/Hoeven race would be in the neighborhood of $20 million.  In the latest contribution reports, the Hoeven Committee had a little less than $70,000 on hand compared to $3.5 million for Dorgan. While Hoeven surely continues to raise money for his state political committee, we know that Hoeven has not yet filed the necessary legal paperwork to raise a dime for a U.S. Senate race. 

If you split $20 million 50/50, Hoeven must raise $10 million between now and Election Day 2010. In other words he must raise $24,000 dollars a day or over $710,000 a month.  To raise that kind of money, Hoeven, as a challenger, will have to sit almost 24/7 for 14 months in a fundraising room, calling donors and begging for campaign cash.

Undoubtedly Hoeven is looking for national help from the National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC).  Hoeven is probably telling the NRSC that if they want him to run for the U.S. Senate, they need to commit at least $5 million national dollars to his campaign, but getting the NRSC to invest that kind of money will be a challenge. The NRSC knows two things.  First, they have more vulnerable Democratic senate races than Dorgan’s to invest hard earned campaign dollars; for example, Senators Dodd and Reid.  Second, they also know the internals of the recent polling, which in no way shows a Dorgan/Hoeven race to be an easy victory for Hoeven, despite a press release to the contrary. (By the way, Gov. Hoeven, if the NRSC tells you they will give you $5 million … get it in the bank before you announce.)

Hoeven does have another source of campaign financing, his own money.  Will John Hoeven be willing to invest millions of his own money in a very tough Senatorial campaign with no sure bet on winning? Only John Hoeven and his father know the answer to that question, but my bet is not.

Score the money factor (double-weighted) for Dorgan.

Message: How does Hoeven convince the voters that he would better represent North Dakota?

Campaigns are about contrasts. To be a successful challenger Hoeven must explain how he would be an effective U.S. senator for North Dakota, but he also must convince a substantial portion of the 68 percent of the North Dakotans who voted for Dorgan in 2004 that they were wrong. 

So in preparing for this race, what has Hoeven done to distinguish himself ideologically or politically from Dorgan?  Where is the contrast?  It is nonexistent.

Much to the frustration of some in the state Republican Party and many Republicans in the legislature, Hoeven is no conservative. He has opposed initiated measures that would have cut state income taxes and curbed state spending. During his 2½ terms in office he dramatically increased the state budget and overall state spending. How does he run against federal spending excess when he consistently take the credit for federal dollars coming into the state?

So how do you handicap the message factor when, party identification aside, Hoeven’s policies are essentially identical to Dorgan’s? The easy answer is you handicap not by message but by the quality of the delivery. Dorgan is a gifted orator, one of the best in this country. Further, Dorgan is seasoned by years of having to defend his positions before less than friendly audiences and he is brilliant at it. 

Whatever you may think of him as a governor, Hoeven has never been a gifted speaker. Further, Hoeven’s political message skills have not improved since taking office because they have not been put to the test by any contentious political debate. Political communication is like a sport, you get better when you play tough competition. Hoeven could improve during the campaign, but there is no way in 14 months his communication skills will ever meet or exceed Senator Dorgan’s.

Score the message factor for Dorgan.

Timing:  What is the general political climate that could affect the race?

Hoeven’s big bet is that President Obama will be wildly unpopular in November of 2010 and, as a result, Hoeven will be swept into a U.S. Senate office simply by reminding people that he is a Republican. But Hoeven knows that bet may never pay off.  Where today we see vulnerability for President Obama because of the health care debate, the 2010 election will be about the overall economy of the country. If the economy is in a solid recovery, Hoeven runs the risk that satisfied North Dakotans will vote for the status quo: John Hoeven as governor and Byron Dorgan as U.S. senator. In their minds, North Dakotan will not be rejecting the popular Hoeven, they will be simply reinforcing their support for him as a governor. Game over.

 If the economy has not improved Obama may well suffer serious midterm losses, but it does not necessarily follow that North Dakota voters will follow that trend. The guilt by association bet is a big gamble given North Dakota voter’s historic willingness to separate their feeling about the president from their votes for U.S. senators.

 Score the timing factor as a tossup.  There are too many uncertainties about the economic recovery and about North Dakota voter’s reactions.

 If Hoeven analyzes the race as I have, does he still take a political chance, a la Kent Conrad vs. Mark Andrews in 1986, and run? 

For my two cents, the answer is no.  Conrad is a risk taker. Hoeven is not. Hoeven will not want to risk his political capital, and personal cash, on a low percentage gamble. The governor knows that after a hard-fought campaign, a greater percentage of North Dakotans will view him unfavorably. In that event, the next campaign might be a little tougher and Hoeven has gotten accustomed to easy campaigns.  Hoeven is only 52 years old.  Byron Dorgan is 67.  Hoeven has time on his side.

One thing is certain, while Hoeven delays his decision; any potential campaign is also delayed. Time in politics is, quite literally, money ($24,000 a day). The longer he waits to make a decision the less likely it is that he will run, and if he does run, the less likely it is that he will be successful. In any case, Hoeven would be wise to heed the advice of the state Republican Party chair who is telling him that “time’s a wasting.”

This entry was posted on Wednesday, August 19th, 2009 at 5:06 pm and is filed under Heidi Heitkamp, KFGO, Opinion & Editorials. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.